Gilboa prison break: Any bloodshed will lead to violence - analysis - The Jerusalem Post

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The Gilboa Prison break by six high-security Palestinian prisoners had the entire country on alert for over a week. But with four of the six captured, the country is breathing a sigh of relief.

Not only were the four prisoners-including high profile Zakaria Zubeidi- caught alive, but it seemed as though the prison break was not as thought out as the defense establishment initially thought.

While a commission will investigate how the escape was able to happen at one of the country’s high-security prisons, some points have already become clear including that the fugitives did not have any outside help.

In contrast to the initial reports that the six had a getaway car waiting for them when they escaped, it seems that they instead ran away on foot and despite concerns that they could have made their way into Jordan or deep inside the West Bank, they were found less than 30 kilometers from the jail.

Zakaria Zubeidi and Mahmoud Ardah were found in a parking lot in the village of Umm el-Ghanam early on Saturday, hours after Yakoub Mohammed Qadri and Mohammed Ardah were located in Nazareth on Friday night.

And don’t believe the FaceApp pictures floating around Palestinian media accounts, none of them were smiling when they were caught. They were all disheveled, hungry, exhausted, and scared.

Their initiative and boldness that led them to discover the flaw in the prison’s structure did not continue after they exited the tunnel shaft.

All the men, including the two remaining fugitives, have Israeli blood on their hands and were serving life sentences.

Zubeidi, who has been in and out of Israeli and Palestinian prisons since he was 14, was once considered a symbol of the Second Intifada as the leader of Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in Jenin’s refugee camp. 

The other five escapees were identified as Munadil Nafayat, Iham Kahamji, Yaquob Qadiri and brothers Mahmoud and Mohammed al-Arida. They are all members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and from towns near Jenin. 

With only four out of the six back behind bars, Israel’s security forces cannot yet declare victory. At least one of two remaining fugitives is believed to have made it to Jenin, a place where even the Palestinian Authority Security Forces rarely operate due to the high level of violence.

With the PASF working with Israel to capture the men, it will likely be a joint and violent operation inside the densely populated refugee camp which has strong support for PIJ.

Israeli security officials are still concerned that the two men could carry out an attack while they are on the loose. Or that other Palestinians emboldened by their release could carry out attacks in an attempt to distract troops from the manhunt. 

And should the fugitives be killed by security forces a new wave of terror attacks can break out, both in the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip. 

Palestinians demonstrate and clash with Israeli security forces in support to the escape of the six Palestinian prisoners from the Israeli prison of Gilboa in the village of Kafr Qaddoum, west of Nablus in the West Bank on September 10, 2021 (NASSER ISHTAYEH/FLASH90).

The refugee camps in the West Bank, especially Jenin, are full of young unemployed men and are awash in weaponry. The mix of high unemployment rates and weapons is never a recipe for calm. Israel could re-enter the West Bank in another Operation Defensive Shield in order to clear the camps of the tons of arms, but that will without a doubt lead to a high casualty rate. On both sides.

There have already been two rockets launched from the Hamas-run coastal enclave, and if Operation Guardian of the Walls taught Israel’s defense establishment anything, it’s that Hamas succeeded in connecting the West Bank and Gaza. 

Any bloodshed will lead to violence, on both fronts.

Israel breathed a sigh of relief this weekend and rightly so. But it needs to inhale and hold another breath, for just a little longer. And once the last two are caught, release that breath. 

Until the next security incident occurs. 

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Gilboa prison break: Any bloodshed will lead to violence - analysis - The Jerusalem Post
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