(Bloomberg) --
U.K. employment fell by the most since the global financial crisis at the height of the nation’s coronavirus lockdown, in a taste of a mounting labor-market crisis.
The number of Britons with jobs tumbled by 220,000 in April to June, the period that saw restrictions at their most severe. The Office for National Statistics said early indicators for July suggest that the number of employees on payrolls is down around 730,000 compared with March.
The figures highlight an economic shock that’s expected to escalate as government support for wages is gradually withdrawn from this month. They also heap pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak to extend the furlough programs that have so far kept the worst of the economic crisis at bay.
Data on Wednesday is set to show Britain had the biggest economic contraction among Group of Seven economies in the second quarter, with a 20.5% drop in output.
That has yet to translate into a significant jump in the unemployment rate, which stayed at 3.9% in the three months through June as more people gave up looking for work. Still, officials are increasingly worried that will change later this year, threatening any recovery in growth.
What Bloomberg Economists’ Say...
“A sharp fall in employment and the subdued level of vacancies both suggest the labor market has taken a significant hit in recent months. We expect the true cost to be revealed once the government’s furlough scheme ends in October. Our baseline forecast sees the jobless rate peak at 8.5% at year-end.”
-- Dan Hanson, senior U.K. economist. Read his full REACT.
Workers on the furlough program, which has helped support 9.6 million jobs since it began in March, are classed as still being employed, and both the Bank of England and the U.K.’s fiscal watchdog have warned of a rapid acceleration when the plan ends in October.
Tuesday’s data showed pay fell 1.2% from a year earlier in the second quarter, and earnings excluding bonuses were down 0.2% -- the first negative reading for basic pay since records began in 2001.
BOE policy makers expect unemployment to rise materially to about 7.5% by the end of the year, accompanied by an increase in inactivity of about 400,000 people relative to before the crisis.
Some firms are already paring back. This month alone, newsagent and stationery retailer WH Smith PLC said it’s cutting 1,500 jobs while Dixons Carphone Plc said it would lose 800 roles. Other household names to announce losses recently include Boots, the John Lewis Partnership, Selfridges and Harrods department stores, and luxury retailers Burberry and Mulberry.
The ONS said the drop in in employment was driven by workers aged 65 and over, the self-employed and part-time workers. There were also around 300,000 people away from work because of the pandemic and receiving no pay in June.
Most BOE officials agree that the labor market will be key to the recovery. Some economists are warning more than 3 million people could be out of work before the end of 2020 -- the worst since the de-industrialization of Britain under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.
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