Republicans, who made major gains in statehouses in a 2010 wave election that netted them 63 U.S. House seats, are now looking to maintain their advantages rather than go for new seats, Li said. GOP legislatures control redistricting in 19 states compared to eight for Democrats. The rest are either split or controlled by commissions.
“This decade people are doing gerrymanders, but they’re doing more ‘circling-the-wagons’ gerrymanders,” Li said.
Some states where Democrats control redistricting, such as Maryland, Illinois and Oregon, have produced maps with Democrat-leaning competitive seats. Such maps are targeting Republican incumbents, like Maryland’s Andy Harris, or forcing intraparty primaries. For example, after Illinois lost a seat following the 2020 census, Democratic mapmakers combined two Republican districts, essentially packing GOP voters into a single seat.
Li said Illinois and other states controlled by Democrats are aggressively drawing congressional maps, going after Republican-held seats. However, the parsurty may have created a “booby trap” by drawing slightly Democratic districts that could swing red in a strong year for the GOP, Li said.
Those trends have also surfaced as political data has exploded in the past decade, according to Kollman. Political data firms have massive and growing voter files that include voting history, activity, language, ethnicity and religious affiliation.
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December 15, 2021 at 05:32PM
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Redistricting is drying up competitive congressional races - Roll Call
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